[Apr 29th 2020] LabMeeting: COVID-19 Italian and European pandemic: a SEIR model with undetected fraction and mobility-dependent transmission rate

Nicola Picchiotti

Apr 29, 2020 – 11:00 AM
Conference Meeting

We propose a COVID-19 pandemic modelling, based on a SEIR compartmental framework, taking into account the heterogeneous fraction of undetected cases, the mobility variations along time and the adoption of personal protective measures. The model is experimentally validated across both Italian regions and several countries, obtaining fitting parameters in good agreement with previous literature. The accurate estimation and evolution of undetected cases permits the modelling of lockdowns’ mitigation scenarios, of paramount importance for public-health decisions.



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